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Fossil Fuels World Natural Gas Demand To Continue To Increase
Posted by on 2004-03-16 14:33:18
contributed by gfoat

Natural gas has played a major role in meeting energy demand in North America, Western and Eastern European countries, and industrialized Asia due to its availability and environmental acceptance. In the industrialized regions of the world, natural gas fits in the economy as the primary energy resource and as a major raw material for the production of chemicals and petrochemicals. For developing countries, natural gas is a major revenue resource and fits in the economy as a major income generator, attracting foreign investment and enhancing balance of payments.

According to a soon-to-be-released updated report from Business Communications Company, Inc. (www.bccresearch.com) RE-104R The World Natural Gas Business, over the five year period through 2008, natural gas utilization will increase at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 2.4% to reach 116.91TCF in 2008. BCC has identified three key categories in the world natural gas business chain, namely, unconventional, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and conventional. Industries upon which natural gas will directly impact include petroleum, agriculture, chemical, environment, energy, construction, food, and transport. With the rapid buildup in global gas-fired power generation capacity hinging on future natural gas availability, governments and companies must grapple with the dilemma of a near-term shortfall in gas supply.

Some key findings from the study include:

  1. Environmental concerns are expected to substantially increase demand for natural gas. However, there is some question as to whether this projected increase can be sustained by conventional natural gas supply at current high prices. This has led producers to reconsider the role of unconventional gas in their exploration and development portfolios. The unconventional natural gas category (coalbed methane, gas shales, tight sands and landfill) will continue to post double-digit growth over the forecast period. Over the next five years to 2008, demand for unconventional natural gas will increase at an AAGR corresponding to 10.7%, aided by prioritized research and development efforts.

  2. BCC now recognizes LNG as a major segment in the natural gas utilization chain. LNG technology is now used for natural gas supply operations such as imports via tanker ships and domestic storage, and in consumption such as for vehicle fuel. Demand will accelerate by an AAGR of 7.0% over the next five years. This growth is due to a rekindling of interest in LNG imports due to higher U.S. natural gas prices in recent years and technological advances that have lowered costs for liquefaction and regasifying, shipping, and storing LNG.

  3. Conventional natural gas represents the major category and includes natural gas that is produced in noncontinuous reservoirs and can be either associated or non-associated. Demand will reach 95.76 TCF in 2008, from 90.16 TCF in 2003, representing an AAGR of 1.2%. The availability of gas gathering and transmission infrastructure in remote locations has had the desired effect of reducing the venting and flaring of natural gas and by 2008, all major oil and companies aim to achieve zero flaring/venting of natural gas.

The natural gas business model has been drastically altered in the last decade. With deregulation and restructuring of the natural gas industry in the 1990's, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's Order 500 and Order 636 altered fundamentally the natural gas business in the U.S. and many countries worldwide resulting in the development of new markets. These newer markets have changed dramatically how the industry operates using the U.S. models. Also, over the past three years (2000-2003), new environmental legislation has come on-stream, affecting the demand pattern. New technology for power generation in fuel cells and gas conversion in Fischer-Tropsch synthesis are also creating possibilities for monetizing remote gas and gas produced in marginal fields. Renewed interest in these processes has created huge investments in the natural gas industry worldwide.

World Natural Gas Demand by Category, Through 2008
(TCF/Year)

2000

2001

2002

2003

AAGR %
2000-2003

2008

AAGR %
2003-2008

Conventional

87.64

90.2

88.58

90.16

0.9

95.76

1.2

LNG

5.01

5.16

5.49

5.97

6.0

8.37

7.0

Unconventional

5.12

5.64

6.28

7.68

14.5

12.78

10.7

World Utilization

97.77

101.00

100.35

103.81

2.0

116.91

2.4

Source: BCC, Inc.

World Natural Gas Demand by Category, 2000-2003 and 2008
(TCF/Year)

RE-104R The World Natural Gas Business

For more information contact BUSINESS COMMUNICATIONS COMPANY, INC.,
25 Van Zant Street,
Norwalk, CT
06855, Telephone: (203) 853-4266; ext. 309,
Email: publisher@bccresearch.com : Source and publisher: report number, RE-104R


 
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World Natural Gas Demand To Continue To Increase


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